$419 to $58. Five years. This is what compression looks like.
Michigan allowed unlimited licenses, vertical integration, and massive cultivation operations. The result: the fastest and deepest price collapse in American cannabis history. Every market that followed open licensing is watching Michigan to see what comes next.
2008 — Medical Legalization
Michigan voters approve medical cannabis. The program builds slowly with a caregiver model. By 2018, over 300,000 patients are enrolled — one of the largest medical programs in the country.
2018 — Prop 1 (Adult-Use)
Voters approve recreational cannabis with 56% support. The framework allows unlimited licenses, vertical integration, and stacked cultivation licenses. Michigan bets on open competition — the opposite of Arizona’s limited-license model.
2019–2020 — The Launch
Adult-use sales begin December 2019. Flower averages $419 per ounce — the highest launch price in cannabis history. Only a handful of dispensaries are open. Demand is enormous, supply is tiny, and every operator is printing money.
2021–2022 — The Flood
Cultivation licenses pour in. Growers stack licenses to build massive operations. Supply explodes. Flower drops from $419 to $128/oz by 2022. Sales surge to $2.3B as volume compensates for falling prices. Medical begins its collapse — from $481M to $255M in one year.
2023 — The Crossover
Sales hit $3.06B — volume is still climbing, but the price floor keeps dropping. Average flower falls to $92/oz. Medical collapses to $81M. Retailers sell 947,000 lbs of flower. Michigan becomes the #2 market nationally behind California, despite having a quarter of the population.
2024 — The Record Nobody Wanted
Sales hit an all-time high of $3.27B and cross $10B cumulative. But flower falls to $82.50/oz average, hitting $69.20 in December — an all-time low. Retailers sold 1.1 million pounds of flower. More product than ever, at prices that crush margins. Medical: $18M — effectively dead.
2025 — The First Decline
For the first time ever, annual sales fall to $3.17B — down 3.1%. Flower hits $58.20/oz in December — 86% below the 2020 launch price. Active licenses decline for the first time (2,171, down 85). 940 licenses have closed since the program began. 191 growers gone. Then the state drops a 24% wholesale tax on January 1, 2026.
2026 — The Tax Lands
January 2026: the first month under the new 24% wholesale tax. Sales come in at $226.4M — a slow month, typical for January. But flower ticks back up to $59.07/oz, the first month-over-month price increase since 2021. Early signal that the wholesale tax is beginning to pass through to retail. Cumulative adult-use sales: $13.62B.